2) Strong or Valid Arguments

So today, I was sick. Every time I get sick, I always get a Cold Buster from Jamba Juice. I do not know if it's just a coincidence but I always feel better after I drink one. I decided to get one so I don't have to write my blog while being sick. Now, I am not sick anymore. :D

I just came from Jamba Juice about an hour ago and I ordered a Cold Buster right before closing time. Before I walked in, I examined the place, and I made an argument from it.

The chairs and tables from outside were stacked inside.
The floor was recently mopped.
From this, I can conclude that Jamba Juice was closing very soon. (as in 5-10 minutes)

Even though it may sound true (Jamba Juice was really gonna close soon), this is actually an invalid argument. It is invalid because the premises was true, but it is possible that Jamba Juice was not closing soon. Jamba Juice's policy probably was to put all the patios inside 1 hour before closing or maybe by sundown. The floor was mopped because someone probably made a huge mess on the floor. My reasoning is very flawed but it is still a possibility. In other words, there is a possibility that Jamba juice was not closing soon. If Jamba Juice was not closing soon, and the premises was still true, then this argument is invalid.

However, is this a strong argument? It is a strong argument. In my previous paragraph, I admitted that my reasoning was probably an unlikely scenario. The patios being placed inside and the floor being mopped was probably done because Jamba Juice gets less customers right before closing time. In result, Jamba Juice was preparing to close the place soon and by dealing with the closing duties. It was 8:56 pm by the time I arrived at Jamba Juice, and they were about to close at 9:00 pm. There was also only one employee. The other workers probably went home already. This argument would only be weak if it was likely that Jamba Juice was not closing soon. In this case, it was very unlikely that Jamba Juice was not closing soon. That alone makes the argument strong.

Other than that, I have an example of a valid argument.

I saw a huge spider by the bathroom window.
Therefore, there is a huge spider in the bathroom.

This is a valid argument because a few minutes ago, I actually saw a huge spider by the bathroom window. It was HUGE. Anyways, I saw it again before writing this paragraph. From that, I can conclude that this is a valid argument because there is a huge spider in the bathroom. The conclusion will never be false. I just saw the spider recently so the premises is true. Therefore, this argument is valid because it has a true premises and a true conclusion which can never be false (since I know the spider is still there). (O_O)

- Pink Bean