When I do not know the answer for something, sometimes I try to think of a theory of some sort to find it. I do think this is a good way to find an answer if evidence is really not present but in some cases, it may lead me to a false conclusion. This is something everyone should look out for because people's thinking may usually be based on this. Before we reach a conclusion by using this method, we have to see if our "theory" is actually possible. Of course, our reasoning may seem like a likely solution or answer, but we also need to think of the possibilities of it being true.
For example, my sister loves doing arts and crafts. If my sister's friends came to our house and saw a new hand-sewn plush toy, my sister's friends would probably say that she made it because she loves doing arts and crafts. It seems believable that she makes plush toys. However, we also have to think of the possibility of this situation happening. Apparently, my sister is at Davis right now which is about two hours away from San Jose. This brings up that it's less possible that my sister made that plush toy because she is far away from it. Another thing that makes is less possible is that I also love making plush toys as well. Since I live in our parent's house while my sister is at Davis, it would seem more reasonable that the plush toy should be at Davis if it belonged to her. In contrast, the plush toy that is at San Jose would belong to me.
It is good to look out for this mistake because you may jump into conclusions before thinking thoroughly. It's a pretty simple mistake many people fall for because people will always make assumptions or theories if they curiously want to find out an answer.
- Pink Bean
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